Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
